On 13th July, the BoC increased a jumbo of 100bps, which means the Bank Prime rate is now 4.70%, and most HELOC rates are 5.2%. 


For all the homeowners who own a conventional variable rate, the mortgage is now between 3.85% and 4.20%. Most of the current variable rates see no change because they have static payments. As the BoC will set an increase again in September, a trigger point will come to the table for many owners. Investors who invest in their rental properties with HELOC should start to work out a strategy to balance the cost. 


Don't expect the real estate market price to drop dramatically overnight. The massive house price reduction is not happening. But we are looking into a market where price reductions are constant and steady. 


The mortgage rate won't stay this high in 2025. As the government works on inflation aggressively, we are looking at an immediate economic adjustment in the next 18-24 months. A recession is coming; we will see a sharp turn from 2023 through 2024. All landlords have a robust rental market for the next two to three years. 


There is no Soft-Landing; we all embrace the situation together. I highly recommend that all the buyers and sellers hold their activities and return to the market in October or November. By that time, the big picture will be more precise. 


Breath! Feel free to contact me if you have any further questions. 

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Step into July, what will the Canadian economy lead? First, we are heading on track to an inflation rate above 7% this summer, and the drumbeats warning of a coming recession are getting louder and more persistent. 


Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers told Bloomberg TV that there's an increasing risk that the recession he expects will start sooner, in 2022.


"The risks of a 2022 recession are significantly higher than I would have judged six or nine weeks ago," Summers told Bloomberg Television's "Wall Street Week" with David Westin. "If the economy did go into recession in the next six to nine months, then you'd probably see a reduction in inflationary pressures."


So, what should we expect in July?

  1. The high demand in the retail market will start to decline significantly. Especially with the high-interest rate, the Real Estate Market will shift to a balanced market. Don't get me wrong; I am not saying it's easy for people to buy. It means less craziness, in any case. 
  2. The high inflation rate will bring a new level of mortgage stress tests for all the new buyers. The money value is shrinking at the same as your affordability. I highly recommend you talk to your bank before starting your home-hunting. 
  3. Another three-quarter increase from BoC means the Real Estate market is facing an extra 6-8% price drop in July. First-time home buyers can start searching in August. DON'T WAIT FOREVER. Simply because the natural overnight rate cap the BoC will hit is around 3%-3.5% in 2023. Yes, the higher they go, the price will keep going down. BUT, considering the higher stress test, it will be harder to get a mortgage in the future. TWO BLADED SWORDS. We will see a point in a balanced market sooner or later this fall. Believe it or not, this is the GOLDEN time to buy. Why? The Canadian Real Estate Market has a supply shortage like always. Once inflation hits the peak, more sellers will start to hold the unit as a leverage tool for inflation. 
  4. Last but not least, are we heading to a recession? The odds of a slowdown are 60%, and the odds of a recession are 40%. An economic downturn will probably take the next three years for the inflation rate to get back to 2% in early 2025. A recession means a sharp economic decline, and Canada could be in for a bad one. This will bring back the inflation rate rapidly within a few quarters. 

I hope our first published in-sights helps you get a clearer picture of the future market. 


4th July 2022, by Xinning Wu  



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